What are the most successful Football Betting Systems? – Part Two

Value Football Betting System

The other really successful way of being profitable with online football betting is to adopt a value-based strategy. This system does not rely on a detailed knowledge of the particular teams involved in the game, instead, it requires a good look at the relevant statistics and the odds of being offered by the bookies.

In this system, we are betting on which team will win or draw (the win – draw – win market).

The bookies will offer odds based upon their own assessment of the likely outcome of the game.

Lets use the Newcastle v Manchester City game as an example again.

Paddy Power are offering the following odds on the result:

You can see what their analysts think the result will be in percentage terms by doing the sum in the odds, adding 1 and then dividing 100 by that number. For example:

Newcastle = (4 / 1) + 1 = 5. Then 100 / 5 = 20% chance of Newcastle winning

Draw = (3 / 1) + 1 = 4. Then 100/ 4 = 25% chance of a draw.

Man City = (4 / 6) + 1 = 1.66. Then 100 / 1.66 = 60% chance of Man City winning.

You will note that the above percentages add up to more than 100%. This is how the bookies build the odds to their advantage to try to make sure that they turn a profit whatever the result.

However, they are not always right and there is value to be found. Although the average online punter does not have the same ability to check previous form and statistics as the bookies do, we can take advantage of the internet for advice about the likely results of a football match.

Statarea is probably the most comprehensive, free statistics service online. They provide detailed predictions based upon previous matches between the 2 teams, home and away form and current standings of the teams in the league. These are factored together to produce a helpful prediction of the result in a variety of markets.

They predict the Newcastle v Manchester City match as follows:

You can use these predictions to work out what the fair odds should be.

They think that there is a 44% chance that Newcastle will win. On that basis, the odds should be 2.2 in decimal format or 6/5 in fractional odds.

Therefore, the bookies are undervaluing the chances of a Newcastle win and this is a great opportunity for the online punter to place a bet. You could bet £10 with Paddy Power and make a profit of £40 in a game where Statarea thinks that there is a 44% chance of winning.

This value betting system takes a lot of time to compare prices offered by the bookies and statistical predictions, but it offers a huge opportunity for the punter to beat the bookie by removing the edge that the bookie has in a game where the odds do not support the statistics.
There is a significant chance of losing bets using this system, but the point is not the have a high strike rate of wins, instead we are looking for a high profit rate. In other words, although you may not win all your matches, because you have such good value in the odds offered, you will make a profit in the long run.

As with all football betting systems, it is important to stay focused and objective with your bets and the rewards will become evident after a while.

Test out your football betting systems on paper

Before any real money is risked at a bookie, it is very sensible for a punter to test out the system for a while on paper before actually taking the plunge. Use a notebook to identify the matches that you would bet on and note what your stake and winnings / losses would be. Keep a record of how you do after each game and then after 20 or so games, you will have an idea about whether or not these football betting systems are for you or not.

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