Every online punter interested in finding a way to beat the bookie needs to have a successful football betting system. This does not guarantee success (see here for risk free betting), but it greatly increases the prospects of making a profitable bet.
This post will look at a variety of winning football betting systems and will consider how easy they are to run and how profitable they are likely to be.
Each system will require you to have an account already open with one of the online bookies so that you can place the bet.
Football trading strategies are not part of this post and are considered here instead.
Betting on over 0.5 or 1.5 goals per match.
This strategy is simply trying to spot with games are likely to have at least a goal in the match. You don’t need to determine what the result of the game will be or what the final score will be. To win with this football betting system, you simply need to be confident that the match will not end in a 0-0 draw.
The system is simple, but as with all football betting systems, some discipline is required. As a result of its simplicity and high success rate, the profits are not all that high, but a system, which regularly wins a little is better than one with loses a lot!
First, visit the BBC football fixtures page. This shows all of the forthcoming matches in all of the major leagues and international games.
Then, you locate the match that you are interested in and click on the arrow on the left hand side next to the teams in the game.
This will open up a statistics page showing each team’s last 5 results.
The above match between Newcastle and Manchester City is an example of a good match to bet on. Neither team has been involved in a 0-0 draw in the last 5 games. That indicates that they either have good attackers, poor defenders, or maybe both! It doesn’t really matter to the online punter. What the statistics do show is that if current form is followed, then this match is unlikely to end 0-0 and therefore it is a good candidate to place a bet for over 0.5 goals in the game.
The next step is to go to your online bookie and place the bet. The Paddy Power website is currently offering the following odds on the Newcastle v Manchester City match in the over 0.5 goals market:
The decimal odds here are basically 1.02, so the bookies seem to think that it is almost a certainty that these teams will have at least one goal in the match. If you were to bet £10, you would make a profit of 20p.
Obviously this return on investment is pretty low, but any profit is a good profit surely?
If the return is not enough, the punter can analyse the statistics a little bit more carefully to spot a good bet.
In the example above, 7 out of the previous 10 games have resulted in more than 2 goals being scored, so there is a 70% chance of winning if you bet on the over 1.5 goals market.
Paddy Power are offering the following in this market:
The decimal odds of over 1.5 goals is 1.14, so if you bet £10 that the game will finish with more that 1.5 goals, you will make a £1.40 profit.
You can obviously increase the number of goals that you are backing, but the higher you go, the greater the risk that you will lose. That is why we are comfortable staying with the low profit, but high strike rate of backing the over 0.5 goals market as described above.