Four Factors of Betting Success

There are four factors that all bettors have we have listed them below in reverse
order of importance.

4. Winning Selections – Yes that’s right the least important factor in betting success
is a source of winning selections!

I know many of you reading this won’t believe this and maybe this is where you’ll
stop reading.

But I promise you it’s true and I hope that by the end of the 7 days you will realise
this fact.

Your selections, ideally, need to be selections you have found yourself or from a semi exclusive source.

It’s a fact that free selections that everybody has access to offer no value at all.

The only use for free selections or free ratings is if you are adding some value in
some way or using them in a way that the majority are not.

You have to pay for your selections to be successful.

You can pay with time or money or a combination of both.

We will share 4 winning strategies with you over the coming days.

Not crap you’ve seen before. Real winning strategies that are the result of
detailed research.

3. Money Management
– Boring but true and so important. Proper management
of your stakes and your betting bank can be the difference between success
and failure.

2. Mindset – Again boring maybe but honestly good mindset and money
management skills are more important than selections. We will deal with these two
tomorrow before we get to the winning strategies.

1. The number one success factor is the key to everything. Get this right along
with 2 & 3 and 1 matters even less.

In fact there are successful bettors who don’t care what they bet on as long as they
get this aspect right.

This is for those readers who are truly committed to their success and will be wasted
on those who are not. (Those readers will discount it anyway and not realise the
importance)

For that reason I’m going to save it and share it on day 8 with the few who make it
through to the end of this series of emails.

Think about the success factors listed above and you measure up for each.

Here are his rules for betting success

  • Never bet drunk (or under the weather in any way)
  • Have a separate betting bank in a separate account
  • Bet a percentage of bank depending on strength of bet
  • Never bet more than 10% of bank on any one bet
  • Don’t chase losses
  • Don’t let strange results effect judgement
  • Long losing runs – Don’t get desperate for a win or scared
  • Long winning runs – Don’t get cocky & think you’re invincible
  • Record every bet with a reason for placing it
  • Don’t be swayed by so called experts
  • A bet might look like a certainty but it isn’t, there are no certainties
  • Work with systems but be flexible
  • Don’t bet on emotion or on personal favourites. Do look for situations where others are being emotional.
  • Only bet when you think you have an edge
  • Enjoy your betting!

Having a set of rules like this may seem a bit strict and tedious.

Whether you need to do something similar depends a lot on your personality
and character.
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What are the most successful Football Betting Systems? – Part Two

Value Football Betting System

The other really successful way of being profitable with online football betting is to adopt a value-based strategy. This system does not rely on a detailed knowledge of the particular teams involved in the game, instead, it requires a good look at the relevant statistics and the odds of being offered by the bookies.

In this system, we are betting on which team will win or draw (the win – draw – win market).

The bookies will offer odds based upon their own assessment of the likely outcome of the game.

Lets use the Newcastle v Manchester City game as an example again.

Paddy Power are offering the following odds on the result:

You can see what their analysts think the result will be in percentage terms by doing the sum in the odds, adding 1 and then dividing 100 by that number. For example:

Newcastle = (4 / 1) + 1 = 5. Then 100 / 5 = 20% chance of Newcastle winning

Draw = (3 / 1) + 1 = 4. Then 100/ 4 = 25% chance of a draw.

Man City = (4 / 6) + 1 = 1.66. Then 100 / 1.66 = 60% chance of Man City winning.

You will note that the above percentages add up to more than 100%. This is how the bookies build the odds to their advantage to try to make sure that they turn a profit whatever the result.

However, they are not always right and there is value to be found. Although the average online punter does not have the same ability to check previous form and statistics as the bookies do, we can take advantage of the internet for advice about the likely results of a football match.

Statarea is probably the most comprehensive, free statistics service online. They provide detailed predictions based upon previous matches between the 2 teams, home and away form and current standings of the teams in the league. These are factored together to produce a helpful prediction of the result in a variety of markets.

They predict the Newcastle v Manchester City match as follows:

You can use these predictions to work out what the fair odds should be.

They think that there is a 44% chance that Newcastle will win. On that basis, the odds should be 2.2 in decimal format or 6/5 in fractional odds.

Therefore, the bookies are undervaluing the chances of a Newcastle win and this is a great opportunity for the online punter to place a bet. You could bet £10 with Paddy Power and make a profit of £40 in a game where Statarea thinks that there is a 44% chance of winning.

This value betting system takes a lot of time to compare prices offered by the bookies and statistical predictions, but it offers a huge opportunity for the punter to beat the bookie by removing the edge that the bookie has in a game where the odds do not support the statistics.
There is a significant chance of losing bets using this system, but the point is not the have a high strike rate of wins, instead we are looking for a high profit rate. In other words, although you may not win all your matches, because you have such good value in the odds offered, you will make a profit in the long run.

As with all football betting systems, it is important to stay focused and objective with your bets and the rewards will become evident after a while.

Test out your football betting systems on paper

Before any real money is risked at a bookie, it is very sensible for a punter to test out the system for a while on paper before actually taking the plunge. Use a notebook to identify the matches that you would bet on and note what your stake and winnings / losses would be. Keep a record of how you do after each game and then after 20 or so games, you will have an idea about whether or not these football betting systems are for you or not.

What are the most successful Football Betting Systems?

Every online punter interested in finding a way to beat the bookie needs to have a successful football betting system. This does not guarantee success (see here for risk free betting), but it greatly increases the prospects of making a profitable bet.

This post will look at a variety of winning football betting systems and will consider how easy they are to run and how profitable they are likely to be.

Each system will require you to have an account already open with one of the online bookies so that you can place the bet.

Football trading strategies are not part of this post and are considered here instead.

Betting on over 0.5 or 1.5 goals per match.

This strategy is simply trying to spot with games are likely to have at least a goal in the match. You don’t need to determine what the result of the game will be or what the final score will be. To win with this football betting system, you simply need to be confident that the match will not end in a 0-0 draw.

The system is simple, but as with all football betting systems, some discipline is required. As a result of its simplicity and high success rate, the profits are not all that high, but a system, which regularly wins a little is better than one with loses a lot!

First, visit the BBC football fixtures page. This shows all of the forthcoming matches in all of the major leagues and international games.

Then, you locate the match that you are interested in and click on the arrow on the left hand side next to the teams in the game.

This will open up a statistics page showing each team’s last 5 results.

The above match between Newcastle and Manchester City is an example of a good match to bet on. Neither team has been involved in a 0-0 draw in the last 5 games. That indicates that they either have good attackers, poor defenders, or maybe both! It doesn’t really matter to the online punter. What the statistics do show is that if current form is followed, then this match is unlikely to end 0-0 and therefore it is a good candidate to place a bet for over 0.5 goals in the game.

The next step is to go to your online bookie and place the bet. The Paddy Power website is currently offering the following odds on the Newcastle v Manchester City match in the over 0.5 goals market:

The decimal odds here are basically 1.02, so the bookies seem to think that it is almost a certainty that these teams will have at least one goal in the match. If you were to bet £10, you would make a profit of 20p.

Obviously this return on investment is pretty low, but any profit is a good profit surely?

If the return is not enough, the punter can analyse the statistics a little bit more carefully to spot a good bet.

In the example above, 7 out of the previous 10 games have resulted in more than 2 goals being scored, so there is a 70% chance of winning if you bet on the over 1.5 goals market.

Paddy Power are offering the following in this market:

The decimal odds of over 1.5 goals is 1.14, so if you bet £10 that the game will finish with more that 1.5 goals, you will make a £1.40 profit.

You can obviously increase the number of goals that you are backing, but the higher you go, the greater the risk that you will lose. That is why we are comfortable staying with the low profit, but high strike rate of backing the over 0.5 goals market as described above.

Can Messi Alone lead Argentina to Success?

Over the decades Argentina has experienced more and more disappointment in the eyes of their fans, and now with one of the greatest scorers to ever grace the Spanish league, do they have what it take to turn things around?

The big question before any World Cup nowadays is ‘which Argentina is going to turn up?’. Will it be the efficient, almost machine-like performers of the late 70s and 1980s, the scandal-trailing 1990s version or the 2000s side that has always somehow managed to be less than the sum of its parts?

Despite this uncertainty, Alejandro Sabella’s team are second favorites to win the tournament, best priced at 6.0 across the board. However, first they have to overcome the fact that they’ve not passed the quarter finals since 1990 – a stage at which you can get 4.5 with BetVictor for their elimination this time – and yet won the tournament the last time it was played in South America.

All eyes will, of course, be on the strike force of Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguerro and Javier Mascherano. Messi is 2.5 favorite to be Argentina’s top goalscorer in the tournament, perhaps slightly longer odds than one might expect, reflecting both the fact that he has team mates who are equally adept at finding the back of the net and also that he didn’t score at all during South Africa 2010. Aguerro is a decent price at 4.0 whilst Mascherano is as long as 67.0 (all odds courtesy of BetVictor). Argentina scored goals for fun in qualifying, no fewer than 35 of them, but tellingly they only conceded 15 whilst doing so. This is a team who will be interesting but not always exciting to watch as the tournament progresses.

Winning the group should set up a second round game against either Switzerland or France. Neither side should prove too much trouble for this particular Albiceleste squad, but the possible match up with Portugal in the quarter finals will be a very different proposition.

The 6 Big Myths of Sports Betting – Part Two

Big Myth #3

Media “Experts”

The game of football can be made to appear very complex. How many people can really define a “West Coast offense?” How many can accurately identify a “zone blitz,” or a “nickel” or “dime” defense?

NFL analysts in the media have quick answers to all these questions. They have a listing of every player and his record at their fingertips. They have staff-written copy on hand to explain all types of game strategies. They have formidable arrays of statistics to cover any situation.

Because of the media, pro football is a sport of virtually no hidden information. However, it’s one thing to describe an event that’s already over. It is something else entirely to try to predict that which has yet to occur.

When the media try to predict game results, they tend to do poorly. To give just a few examples from New York City, where I live, every Friday eleven New York Post writers make predictions on NFL games against the spread. I’ve never seen one of these handicappers consistently pick the 52.4% winners needed to beat the 11-to-10 odds sports bettors must give. In fact, virtually every year for the past 20 years the consensus in the Post has finished below 50 percent.

One of the Post handicappers often mentions trends in his handicapping analysis—how teams do on grass or turf, as favorites or underdogs, etc. But trends are mostly useless these days since teams change so quickly due to free agency. What does it matter if a team is 12-and-4 on road turf over the last five years if only three of its players have been there that long?

On the radio, WFAN commentators also make predictions every Friday. But they too have seldom picked the 52.4 percent winners needed to beat the 11-to-10. To cover this, they often talk about their records in relation to the .500 mark. The vig seems not to exist in the world of WFAN.

And on television, ESPN’s Hank Goldberg has beaten the 11-to-10 in only one of the seven years he’s been there.

From personal experience, I’ve learned that most TV producers and newspaper editors view sports handicapping as entertainment rather than serious journalism. That’s why you, as a serious handicapper, should take all media predictions with a big grain of salt.

Big Myth #4

Pie in the Sky Win Rates

As NFL betting has grown, so has the tout business. A tout is someone who gets paid to help a bettor make money betting the NFL. Some are legitimate handicappers. An overwhelming majority are not.

The first way to protect yourself from one who is not is to rule out anyone who claims to win 75 or 80 percent against the point spread. Just remember this: Anyone who reasonably expected to win 80 of his next 100 bets could turn $1,000 into $15 billion by proper proportional betting—all in one season!

A realistic long-term win percentage for a skilled handicapper will be in the 55–60 percent range. I know of no service that has done better than about 60 percent over a number of seasons. And those that consistently reach 60 percent are very few.

Another warning sign of a rip-off tout is multiple services within one service. Touts create multiple services so that they can always truthfully claim to have won. For example, a tout may operate an early-week newsletter giving selections on each game along with a weekend phone service giving selections based on the “latest inside information.” Then the tout will switch sides on a game because of “new” information. This way, the tout can always truthfully advertise that his service, meaning one of his services, had the winner of the game.

Other sports services give out selections on 900 numbers with a charge-per-call. They pad the bill by offering just one selection and telling you to call back in ten minutes for another pick—and another charge.

Other services advertise “lock games,” meaning games that can’t lose. How they can sell such games is beyond me. Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing against the spread can be infinitesimally small. In the NFL, a game will often be turned by a single play or penalty call. The best anyone can do in handicapping is come up with a side that has a slightly better than 60 percent chance of covering the spread. This still means that almost four times in ten the game will lose—which makes any talk of a lock complete nonsense.

Some of the more laughable tout ads are those that are printed a month or more ahead of time. These are often found in NFL betting schedules. The ads will claim that this service had winners in games that couldn’t have been played when the ads were written!

In summary, the only touts you should consider using are those who talk about the long haul and realistic win percentages.

Big Myth #5

“Big” Payouts

The usual way to bet the NFL is to bet one game at a time and give 11-to-10 odds (risking, for example, $55 to win $50 or $110 to win $100). Usually the bet is on one team against the point spread, or the over-under on the total score of a game. However, bookies also offer other types of bets. What makes these bets alluring is that they seem to pay more. But in reality, these exotic bets usually cost you.

Parlays and Parlay Cards: Parlays are usually bet in two- or three-game groups. On a two-game parlay, a bettor gets 13-to-5 odds if he wins both games. For a small investment, the payoff seems big: on a $50 wager, a payoff of $130. On a straight bet, by contrast, a bettor must risk $143 ($130 plus the $13 vig) to win $130. And if he is going to bet two games at $50 each, he must risk $110 to win only $100. So why not bet parlays?

The problem is that the odds of winning two of two bets is 3-to-1 against. That means the fair payout odds should also be 3-to-1 (or 15-to-5). But they aren’t. Instead, they are only 13-to-5.

A three-team parlay usually pays off at odds of 6-to-1. Here a $50 bettor receives $300 on a $50 investment. Sounds great, doesn’t it?

However, the odds of cashing that three-team parlay ticket are only 1 in 8.

Another form of parlay is the parlay card, or “sheet.” On these, the payoff odds are even worse—often only 5-to-1 for picking three games. That gives the house an edge of 25 percent. Four-teamers usually pay 10-to-1, which gives the house a 31.25 percent edge. A ten-teamer might pay 500-to-1, which sounds good until you realize that the odds against going 10 for 10 are 1,023-to-1, which gives the house over 50 percent edge on that proposition.

Teaser Bets: Every year the number of bettors who wager on teasers grows. Why? The games they remember losing by “just a point or two.”

The most common type of teaser bet is the two-team teaser where a bettor gets six points on each of two games. The price of these extra points is giving 6-to-5 (or 12-to-10) odds on the bet. In all teasers, all games must win for the bettor to get paid. Also, in most teasers, if any game ends in a tie, the teaser is considered no bet. (On a ten-point teaser, a tie makes the teaser a loss.)

In any given season, a game has a little over a two-thirds chance of falling within 5 points of the closing line (the rate was 68.8 percent for 1990–1999). These games would all be wins on six-point individual-game teaser bets regardless of which side you bet. However, you must win two games to win a six-point teaser.

By squaring the 68.8 percent win rate for 1990–1999, we find that you would have won just over 47 percent of six-point two-game teasers. However, laying 6-to-5 odds means you must win 54.545 percent of two-team teasers just to break even. That means the house had an edge of over 12 percent.

On the other teaser bets, the picture is just as bleak.

The best bet in the NFL is betting the point spread or over/under on individual games. Giving 11-to-10 odds is generally the cheapest price you can give.

Big Myth #6

Something for Nothing

There are those who believe that sports betting is the ultimate something-for-nothing activity. But in reality, betting pro football to win is a business and must be treated like one to be successful.

The basics of making money at this business are that the lines put out by the oddsmakers are made not to predict the actual outcomes of games, nor to educate the public about the relative strengths of teams, but to try to split the betting public by making one team as attractive as the other. Since the public’s view of a match-up is occasionally incorrect, lines are sometimes incorrect in terms of the real differences between two teams.

A professional bettor looks for these incorrect lines. When he finds such lines he wagers on them—and that is the only time he wagers.

And how does a winning handicapper find those inaccurate lines?

By dispassionately viewing as many games as possible, as well as post-game coverage of match-ups you couldn’t tune in to. By keeping records of scores, lines, injuries and game statistics for later research. By analysis of game stats and the tracking of motivational factors. By educating yourself on how oddsmakers set lines so you are able to detect real value. And most important, by shopping aggressively for the best possible lines on games you’ve decided to bet.

Virtually all of the successful sports bettors I know work hard at handicapping. We don’t just roll out of bed and make bets. We don’t go by “inside information.” The information I use is available to anyone who makes the effort to get it. To profit from handicapping the NFL, you should expect to make a similar effort. ´

The 6 Big Myths of Sports Betting

Pro football is the biggest betting sport in the United States, with total wagers now running more than $1 billion a week. According to USA Today, over half of the American adult population had a financial stake of some sort on the outcome of last year’s Super Bowl. That translates to over $5 billion wagered on that game alone.

Among the reasons pro football is the most popular betting proposition is that the NFL receives such thorough coverage on television. With nearly every big play shown in replay during the game and many times thereafter, a viewer can’t help but see who made the big runs, catches or blocks that week.

The print media also covers the NFL very closely. Box scores and colorful stories by sportswriters can give fans a strong impression of what happened in a game.

In addition, although betting on the NFL is illegal in nearly every state, the point spread on games receives extensive coverage in both the print and televised media. Late in the week, many newspapers have staff members make selections against the point spread. ESPN’s Chris Berman and Hank Goldberg, as well as many radio commentators, make weekly selections as well. All of this coverage makes the point spread enticing for viewers. The information encourages them to form their own opinions. Some bettors follow the advice of favorite writers or commentators. Others try to prove they know more than the experts. And for any fans who still feel they lack expertise, hordes of sports services or touts offer to fill the gap. Most of them promise fabulous returns of 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the people who book NFL games were the biggest suckers in the world.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Bookies love the NFL season. It provides them with their greatest profits in sports.

The average bettor, on the other hand, despite all the touts and information, loses season after season. The late Bob Martin, manager of Las Vegas’s first casino sportsbook, once told me that the number of bettors who win betting pro football is so small that “it is virtually the same as if no one won.”

Year after year, NFL bettors go into the season filled with confidence and end up losing. How can this happen?

Big Myth #1

To Win, You Should Bet the Better Team

Statistically, the average bettor tends to bet favorites. That is a big mistake, and here’s why.

First, the average bettor tends to overstate the relative strength of the league’s better players and teams. What pro handicappers know is that there is actually tremendous parity in the league, with not that much difference between the best player at a position and the worst.

When a team of slightly worse players is more motivated than a team of slightly better players an outright upset is possible. Most certainly, it’s possible for the “inferior” team to cover the point spread.

Second, the point spread tends to nullify any obvious scrimmage edge (skill or power advantage) a team has over its opponent. In the 1999 and 2000 seasons, for example, there were 167 games in which the point spread was seven points or more (games where one team’s advantage over another was perceived to be sizable). While the underdog won just 36 of these games outright (21.6 percent), the underdog covered the point spread in 83 of the games (while tying it in six): a success rate of 51.6 percent.

Third, by betting an underdog, you have an important element of game strategy on your side. NFL teams do their best to win a game. Therefore, in the last few minutes of a game, a team that is leading seldom takes much risk to score more points. Instead, it concentrates on hanging on to its lead. The team that is losing, on the other hand, usually tries to score until the bitter end. If a bettor has taken a favorite that is ahead but not covering with five minutes or less to go, that bettor is in trouble.

In 20 years of handicapping the NFL, I have yet to come across a long-term winning bettor who does not bet mostly underdogs.

Big Myth #2

The “Fix”

The “fix” is a widespread belief among amateur bettors. Every now and again, accusations of a fix even make it into respected books and magazines.

I don’t believe that NFL games are fixed and here’s why. First, over the past 25 years, I have known a number of handicappers, including myself, who have consistently won money betting the NFL. If the games weren’t honest, we couldn’t have won. Handicapping just couldn’t overcome players who were dumping or shaving points. Second, in order to fix a game, two events would have to occur. The fixer would have to get important players involved, and be able to bet enough to overcome the payments he has made to the crooked players.

Over the last 15 years, NFL salaries have skyrocketed. Important players, who would have to be in on the fix for it to work, make well into the millions each season. They make even more from endorsements and advertisements. It would cost a lot of money to get to such players. And you could never fix a game with one player alone; at least a few would have to bought.

The fixer would then have to bet enough on the game to turn a profit on the deal. In order to bet this big he would have to use hundreds or thousands of bookmakers.

And bookmakers would definitely notice when they saw this tidal wave of money coming in on one team. As the money came in from all over the country, bookmakers would be in a race to lay off the money with other bookmakers. When huge money comes in from seemingly nowhere it is called unnatural money, and bookmakers are always suspicious about it. With multiple millions suddenly coming in, suspicion would be rampant.

When bookmakers see unnatural money, they take games off the board until they know the reason for it. And there is always a reasonable explanation. Sometimes it’s an injury that comes to light. Sometimes a big name in betting likes the team.

Bookmakers, who themselves depend on accurate handicapping, know that the only way they can survive is for NFL games to be honest. Coups, such as the ones that have tarnished college basketball from time to time, could wipe them out. Bookmakers would be the first to turn in anyone who tried to fix a game.

Believers in fixes also point to referees as possible culprits. Since referees make far less money than players and exert great control over games, this could be feasible except for two things.

First, the NFL does a very close background check on potential referees. Before anyone is allowed to ref NFL games, a lot of solid sources have to consider him bribe-proof.

Second, sources in Las Vegas keep records on which referees work which games and correlate the data with any big money that comes in on a game. If any suspicious correlation between a particular ref and unnatural money turned up, it would be reported immediately to the NFL.

Don’t use the fix as an excuse to lose. Instead, get to work on your handicapping.

Betting must be considered as a pure business in order to succeed

If you want to make money from sports betting the entire process must be taken as a real business investment. If you have a look on any financial book you will notice that the process of investment can be divided into four main stages.

The first one is to study as good as possible your object of investment. The second is to create an action plan, which is followed by the real action. At the end is the final stage which is the process of analysing the results you get.

Whit betting is exactly the same. The first thing you should do is to carefully examine the betting opportunities that offer all the different bookmakers like bet365, bet-at-home or William hill. Here the most important is to overview their betting options and to calculate the margin which they offer. This is important because when you find betting options with lower margin you could be in profit even with lower success rate.

This stage includes also a careful study of all the possible systems for combining of bets and money management, which you are going to use with your betting. This is also an important factor which could help your gain profit by sports betting.

When we are ready with our researches it is time to create an action plan for real betting. When you have researched the options offered by the bookmakers like bet365, bet-at-home or William hill and you have considered your betting system, it’s time to move further to the real action. You need to determine how many bets you are going to bet and what amount you will risk. When your are ready then you move to stage three or the real betting.

Here the only thing you need to do is to be disciplined in your betting. This means not to be despair when you lose and not to get excited when you win. It is important to comply strictly with the original plan you have created and not to care about anything else.

When you make the predetermined number of bets it’s time for the last and perhaps the most important stage – the stage for analysis of results. You need to carefully examine what were the weaker points in our system, where you can improve and what you can leave as it is.

When you keep these four steps with which you make betting on sporting events just like real business investments you will significantly increase your chances of success and at the end to gain profit.

What do you think about Honduras winning the World Cup?

If you like the excitement and really high odds and you feel that in some way it is time to make good money with the matches from the World Cup in Brazil, then here are some of the highest odds, proposed by William Hill.

Of course, they are in the market for the winner of the entire championship. There, with the highest odds are the complete outsiders from Honduras and Costa Rica. Every pound bet on their victory will be returned to the incredible 2501, but of course the condition is the team to become the new football world champion.

Just a quick note here, odds of 2501 are equal to 0.0399% chance this to happen and in this percentage is not even included the bookmaker’s margin. Make your own calculation how amazing sounds Honduras to become world champion in Brazil in 2014 year.

In the group of teams with minimal chances of victory in the championship are teams like Algeria (whose chances are estimated at 1001 by William Hill), Japan, Australia and Cameroon (with chances, estimated by the bookmaker to 751) and South Korea, where for their victory the bookie offers 501.

If you are looking for great odds, then you can have a look on the markets for the best scorer in the championship.
There except that you can bet on the number of players with odds above 101 like Frank Lampard, David Silva and Edin Dzeko, you also have the option to bet on someone who is not even on the William Hill’s list. So you can get even higher odds if you bet that the top scorer of the tournament will be for example the central defender of Costa Rica.

When looking for a really high odds, then you can dig a bit deeper on the site of William Hill and see their suggestions. However, is it possible to get a winning bet with odds over 1000 is quite another matter.

Under 2.5 goals for Newcastle and Sunderland

One of the oldest football derbies in England – this between Newcastle and Sunderland will be played this Saturday. The match will be the first from the 24th round in the Premier League and it would be crucial for the guests who currently struggles to survive among the best teams in England.

Sunderland is on the 17th place in the current standings and is two points ahead of West Ham and the relegation zone.

Newcastle itself is 6 points behind the places which give participation in the European tournaments, but this hardly will be a goal for Alan Pardew, who already could start thinking about how to strengthen his team for the next season.

Sunderland definitely showed some improvement in their last matches, and for the last 8matches has allowed only one loss (at home to Aston Villa with 0:1) and registered three victories. The team gradually gained confidence (which was witnessed with the matches against Cardiff and Southampton, when they managed to equalize from 0:2 to 2:2) and certainly goes to visit Newcastle with the idea to win some points.

The bookies still give priority to the home team with the highest odds for their victory offered by bet365 and bet-at-home – 1.85, while William Hill offers 1.7. The possible draw between Newcastle and Sunderland is estimated at 3.4 by William Hill and bet365 and on 3.3 from bet-at-home. The chances for the guests vary around 4.3.

Sunderland will surely come up with the idea that the draw will mean a success in this match and will play a close, defensive game. This, combined with the bad meteorological weather which is expected over the UK for the weekend is not a prerequisite for many goals. This is exactly why under 2.5 goals scored by both teams in the match is attractive enough for a bet. William Hill’s proposal of 1.95 makes it even better and it would be my bet for this match.

Your Betting Bank – Your Key to Success

Every successful punter I know uses a Betting Bank. It is impossible to know if we are really winning or even how much we are winning without it. Punters tend to forget their losses and over play their winnings. A betting bank is a measure of your success (or failure) at betting.

A betting bank is a sum of money we put to one side (money which we can afford to lose) and is used exclusively for our betting. It can be as big or as small as we like.

A betting bank can be used in a number of ways. A popular method is to divide it into points. So a 20 point bank at £5 a point would be a betting bank of £100. Another method is to use a percentage of our betting bank for each bet. So if we had a £100 betting bank and we were using 5% of our betting bank then each bet would simply be the amount in our betting bank times 5%.

Of the two methods I much prefer the first. With this method our stake remains constant and is sometimes known as level stake betting. We can choose to recalculate our stake at whatever point we like. Personally I tend to recalculate my stakes when the betting bank has grown by 25% or more.